Pick Nic: Stats Reveal Naitanui’s Ruck Dominance in 2021

With the home and away season done and dusted, the AFL has confirmed its 40-person Therabody All-Australian squad. In it are three ruckmen.

Prior to the announcement of the squad, based on my observations, the general consensus in the media seemed to be that while Sean Darcy had an exceptional breakout year, Max Gawn was the obvious number one ruck.

Case closed.

When footy journalists Nat Edwards and Damian Barrett discussed who should be named as the All-Australian midfield during their AFL Daily podcast, they didn’t even bother debating the ruck position.

Max Gawn. Good chat. Moving on.

But what about Nic Naitanui — the league’s #1 player according to the Official AFL Player Ratings, who along with Gawn and Darcy was selected in the 40-man All-Australian squad.

Let’s take a look at the ruck-specific stats that should play a crucial role in determining which player actually had the most dominant season in that position.

Hitouts

The obvious starting point when considering who performed better in their duty as a ruckman are the hitouts.

Of the three ruckmen named in the All-Australian squad, Demons captain Gawn had the most hitouts — 705 at an average of 32 per game. Naitanui came in second with 687 at 31.2, and Darcy in third with 599 at 28.5.

Okay. Maybe Nat and Damo were on the money. A simple check of the hitout stats tells you everything you need to know, right? Most hitouts equals best ruckman, right?

Hitouts to advantage

This is where things start to get interesting.

A hitout is when the player knocks the ball away from a ruck contest. But a hitout to advantage is when a player not only does that, but the ball reaches its intended target.

From his 687 hitouts, Naitanui hit his target 270 times. That’s at a rate of 39.3%.

Next best is up for debate. Gawn (227) had more hitouts to advantage than Darcy (211). But being that he played one less game than Gawn, Darcy had a better strike rate, with 35.2% of his hitouts going to advantage as opposed to Gawn’s 32.2%.

Either way, Naitanui clearly reigns supreme in the area of hitout efficacy.

Clearances

This is where things really get interesting.

A clearance is when a player clears the ball out of a stoppage situation, and a stoppage always starts with a ruck contest.

When a ruckman wins the clearance, this almost always means they won ruck contest. The only time this is not the case is when one ruckman is roving from the other ruckman’s shoddy ruck work.

Either way, this vital ruck contest data cannot be found anywhere in the hitout stats.

Naitanui had an astonishing 158 clearances for the season at an average of 7.2 per game. This not only places him at #1 among ruckmen, but #4 across the entire league. Only Clayton Oliver (167), Tom Liberatore (165) and Darcy Parish (164) had more clearances than Naitanui in season 2021.

Back in the ruck, Gawn and Darcy were 60 clearances behind Naitanui with 98 apiece— Darcy at an average of 4.7 per game and Gawn at 4.5.

Again, Naitanui reigns supreme. By far.

So maybe the hitout stats aren’t the definitive guide to how well a ruckman executed his duties after all. Just to be sure, let’s dig further.

Ruck contest wins

Okay, now I’m making up new stat titles. But hear me out.

Ruck contest wins are simple. They’re the combined total of hitouts and clearances, which equals the total number of times a ruckman won a ruck contest.

In season 2021, Naitanui ranks #1 for ruck contest wins with 845 at an average of 38.4 per game. Gawn is a clear #2 with 803 at 36.5, followed by Darcy with 697 at 33.2.

Ruck contest wins to advantage

If you’re still with me, hang in there just a little longer. This, in my view, is the most important ruck stat of the lot.

Ruck contest wins to advantage are the combined total of hitouts to advantage and clearances. Let me explain.

If a hitout to advantage is when the ruckman hits his intended target with the hitout, then a clearance by a ruckman must be deemed a ruck contest win to advantage by default, because when the ruckman takes the ball out of the ruck contest himself, he himself is the intended target. So if he takes the ball out of the ruck and clears it, that’s a ruck contest win to advantage.

Go it? Okay, good. Now let’s look at the stats.

In season 2021, Naitanui had a total of 428 ruck contest wins to advantage. That means of the 845 ruck contests Naitanui won, 50.7% of them were to his team’s advantage.

Next is Gawn with 325 at 40.5% efficacy — more than 100 behind Naitanui despite both men playing all 22 home and away games.

Coming in third overall is Darcy with 309 at 44.3%. Darcy’s overall total is lower than Gawn’s because Darcy played one less game for the season. But his strike rate is better.

Time on ground

Because if I don’t mention it, I’ll be accused of ignoring it. Yes, Naitanui spends a lot less time on the ground than his opponents do.

In season 2021, Naitanui played 68.1% of game-time on average. That’s 12.8% less than Sean Darcy, who spent 80.9% of his time on the ground, and a whopping 21.9% less than Gawn, who typically remains on the field for 90% of games.

Many people equate Naitanui’s lesser time on ground to laziness. Others blame a perceived lack of endurance. But perhaps it’s just intelligent player management on Eagles coach Adam Simpson’s part, to ensure that Naitanui has the biggest possible impact on games, and gets to as many ruck contests as possible.

Despite spending 21.9% less time on the ground than Gawn does, Naitanui actually competed in 1299 ruck contests — 90 more than Gawn’s 1209 across the season. And if we are picking an All-Australian ruckman, we expect him to get to ruck contests.

In conclusion: Pick Nic

When you look at the stats that come directly from ruck contests, it’s pretty clear who was the most dominant in the position for season 2021. Subjectivity aside, the numbers don’t lie.

The efficacy of Naitanui’s ruck work is truly something to behold. Being able to win a hit out is one thing, but being able to win a ruck contest to advantage is another. And it’s clear that Naitanui’s 50.7% efficacy in the ruck contest is significantly greater than Gawn’s 40.5%.

If you watch him play, Naitanui’s ruck dominance is clear. You don’t need to look at the stats sheet to see it. The stats simply confirm what’s already obvious to anyone who’s paying attention.

Let’s see if the Therabody All-Australian selection panel — Andrew Dillon, Chris Johnson, Glen Jakovich, Warren Tredrea, Cameron Ling, Jude Bolton, Matthew Richardson, Nick Riewoldt and Kevin Bartlett — have been paying attention.